Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 called into question the system of geopolitical alliances that had been in place since the Second World War. As a result, the confrontation between Russia and NATO has taken on a new form, creating a geopolitical hiatus that has upset the pattern of political forces on the international stage. The diplomatic support of the Kremlin’s major historical partners has enabled it to maintain its position in global governance bodies and to increase its military capacity against NATO. In this context, not only the media but also analysts and political decision-makers have focused on China, neglecting a major player, India, even though this country is an important partner for Russia, particularly in the industrial military sphere. India’s diplomatic support for Moscow since February 2022 can only be understood in the context of the long-term cooperation between the two countries. While it has enabled Russia to lessen the impact of Western sanctions, this conflict has also enabled Western countries, including France, to take a growing share of the Indian arms market.

India is one of the largest historical importers of Russian arms. Relations between the two states are primarily military in nature, and largely dominate trade in other areas (financial, energy, cultural, etc.). Between 1955 and 1991, 65% of the weapons used by the Indian army came from the USSR; this proportion increased further after the collapse of the USSR, from the end of the 1990s until 2021.

More importantly, India is a key military player on a global scale. It has the second largest army in the world, with 1.45 million soldiers1, and considerable weight in the arms trade: over the period 2017-2021, India was the largest arms buyer, with a share of the global market of 11% 2. Subsequently, under the impact of sanctions against Russia in 2014 and 2022, India diversified its suppliers, becoming France’s leading destination for military equipment in 20203. An evolution in India’s strategic military vision is therefore likely to influence the pattern of existing military alliances and reconfigure the arms market.

The first part of this study will analyse the historical development of Indo-Russian relations in the field of defence and the arms industry from the Soviet era to the present day, and will take stock of Indian legislation and government aspirations in the field of defence.

The second part will focus on India’s Public Sector Defence Undertakings (DPSUs4), the largest defence players in India, which favour cooperative links with Russia through joint ventures and technology transfer.

The third part will examine the emergence of Indian private companies and defence start-ups since 2001 and look at the impact of Western sanctions on trade in military equipment between India and Russia.

In conclusion, the study will present the industrial and strategic challenges facing India today and propose scenarios for the development of Russian-Indian relations in the short term (5-10 years), medium term (10-25 years) and long term (30-35 years), based on the development of India’s defence equipment trade, its strategic interests and the new importance of its American and French partners for India.