Many of Ukraine’s artillery systems operate on Soviet standards, utilizing 122mm and 152mm shells, while NATO-standard weapons in Ukraine require 155mm ammunition. To address this dual need, Ukraine is ramping up production of both Soviet-style and NATO-standard shells. Key initiatives on 155 mm production include:

• Signed agreements with Czechoslovak Group (CSG) for the production of 155 mm artillery ammunition in Ukraine;
• Agreement with KNDS on the production of 155 mm in Ukraine; 
• Agreement on licensed production of 155 mm artillery shells in Ukraine with Nammo (Nordic Ammunition Company).

All type of shells require gunpowder, which is made of nitrocellulose. 

Nitrocellulose, a mixture of nitric esters of cellulose and a highly flammable compound that is the main ingredient of modern gunpowder. Nitrocellulose is made chiefly of cotton, which is a key component for gunpowder production. Thus, access to cotton determines the ability to produce artillery ammunition.

Historically grown in Ukraine in Crimea and Kherson, but during Soviet times, cotton farming in Ukraine was abandoned in favor of Central Asia, where better yields and larger workforce made cultivation more efficient. To relaunch domestic cotton production, Ukraine started a pilot program in May 2024 in Odessa. Experimental plots, spanning several 10-acre sections, have shown successful boll formation. These include five imported varieties, as domestic cotton strains were largely destroyed during Russia’s occupation of Kherson. At the same time, the Verkhovna Rada passed legislation to facilitate the import of cotton seeds, while researchers are working to revive lost domestic varieties. Experts estimate it will take two years to develop Ukrainian strains ready for large-scale planting. 

In the meanwhile, import is the solution. However, the problems are: (1) deficit of nitrocellulose on the global market and (2) market demand competition driven by the wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East, and market control by several big companies, who prioritize supplies to their national ammo manufacturers: Eurenco (supplies KNDS), Nitrochemie  (supplies Rheinmetall), FMG (supplies MSM Group), Alliant Powder (supplies Vista Outdoor).

Stable access to gunpowder for Ukraine could increase shells production by hundreds of thousands per year, says Vladyslav Belbas, director of Ukrainian Armour, a company that produces artillery and mortar rounds, in the interview to Ekonomichna pravda. 

The EU has acknowledged the critical need for ammunition and launched a €2 billion fund to boost production, allocating 75% of it to construct gunpowder plants and expand explosives manufacturing. The fund and bulk orders aim to raise the EU production capacity to 1.4–1.7 million artillery shells annually by the end of 2024. However, not all of these shells will go to Ukraine; a significant portion will be reserved for replenishing the EU stockpiles.

Building a fully independent gunpowder supply chain would demand substantial investment, years of development, and a restructured global market that currently depends heavily on Chinese nitrocellulose. Despite these challenges, Kyiv has set an ambitious goal to localize artillery ammunition production within Ukraine. According to former Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshyn, Ukraine has already initiated the domestic production of 155 mm artillery shells. However, one of the most significant obstacles remains sourcing cotton—a key ingredient in nitrocellulose production.