September 2026

NEWSLETTER 35: New Defense Leadership in Ukraine, Deep Strikes on Russia, and Small Radars

Newsletter prepared by Daryna Patiuk and Bohdan Kostiuk.
Editing by Clotilde Warin and Anastasiya Shapochkina.


In the wake of Russia’s parliamentary elections, 350 Ukrainian drones were flying toward Moscow. More followed in the days since. As Russia is feeling the impact of Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign, Bohdan Kostiuk analyses what it is and what it means for Russia’s next move.


Meanwhile, Ukraine changed its military and Defense Ministry leaders over the summer. Daryna Patiuk examines why, and what the new duo of Yevhenii Khmara and Mykhailo Drapatyi will do to the reforms launched before them. She then looks at the importance of small radars and the market players in this field.

INSIDE UKRAINE: Top Brass Reshuffle

Minister of Defense of Ukraine Yevheniy Khmara and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Major General Mykhailo Drapaty

Source : mod.gov.ua

 

In July, Zelenskiy conducted the now annual government reshuffle. He eventually sacked both the Minister of Defense Mykhailo Fedorov and, following public outrage, the Commander of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi.Once the dust has settled over the summer, we seek to understand the reasons for this change and the consequences for the frontline, the army, and defense industry. 

Let’s start with the why: the replacement of both Defense Minister and the Commander of the Armed Forces was widely interpreted as an irreconcilable inner conflict between Fedorov and Syrskyi. However, a closer look exposes deeper structural challenges. The most important among them concern procurement system, frontline strategy, and mobilisation reform.

Procurement system changes

First and foremost, Fedorov’s dismissal in July is linked to the procurement system changes his team had been implementing since the winter 2026. Most importantly, Fedorov based Ukraine’s arms tenders on verified battlefield data through Delta command-control system. He also continued the “e-points” system launched in 2025. 

«The latter awards military units e-points for each confirmed target hit, which they can spend on equipment bought directly from manufacturers. This speeds up supply, rewards innovation, and adds a complementary channel to the existing centralized procurement system run through the Ministry of Defence, Defense Procurement Agency, the Main Logistics Command and the General Staff. That system was built for large, standardized contracts and 1 year planning cycles, which made it slow to adapt to 3 months pace fast-changing frontline needs and difficult for newer, smaller manufacturers to enter due to their small scale. With e-points, demand comes directly from the units using the equipment, so battlefield performance, maintenance repair and overhaul speed become the main selection criteria,” explains Bohdana Fedun of Rasmussen Global in Kyiv.

Fedorov’s changes in arms procurement prioritized mid-range strike systems and drones over other types of equipment. This threatened the established arms sellers and their patrons, who supposedly rallied around the General Staff  and relied on the old procurement system. The procurement struggle between several camps resulted in competing defense procurement priorities, where the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff had contested visions of what equipment was needed on the front to break the tie. The competition left planning incoherent and traditional suppliers frustrated, weakening Fedorov’s political position, commented investigative journalist Roman Romaniuk from Ukrainska Pravda.

Frontline strategy

Second, seeking to address manpower shortages, Fedorov stepped out of his constitutional responsibilities as Defense Minister when he sought to influence military operations through procurement. Fedorov argued that killing 35,000 Russians per month does not allow to build a decisive advantage against Russian scale. Instead, the effort focused on the robotisation of war and the digitalisation of the Army. He also criticized Syrskyi’s doctrine of incremental shifts toward precise, low-cost strikes and EW “domes”. For Fedorov, to sustain attrition, Ukraine had to shift to asymmetric, technology-driven warfare, treating procurement and frontline strategy as two sides of the same coin. Seeking to expand his responsibility left Fedorov exposed. 

Mobilization reform 

Third, once the tide turned against him, Fedorov was criticized for a failure to implement the long-promised mobilisation reform. This issue has become the least addressed and the most divisive in Ukrainian society, compounding questions about experience vs pay, motivation, and accountability for desertion, none of which can be answered with leadership change alone. Fedorov also launched contracts for military personnel promising significantly increased payouts, but members of parliament later stated that these pledges were not backed by the actual capacity of the state budget. 

Applying corporate business metrics to military administration presented certain structural challenges. While acknowledging a prominent and successful unit is understandable, the defense line is also sustained by many lesser-known brigades and corps. Fedorov’s critics argue that on his watch the units failing the metrics went unnoticed and underfunded. The e-points program described above is a case in point: units accumulate points based on confirmed strikes, which directly determines their access to additional funds to  buy weapons and other supplies. However, the units holding defensive sectors or facing lower operational tempos struggle to generate comparable metrics, which leads to uneven state funding, compounding operational vulnerabilities despite these units’ vital contribution to holding the front. 

What’s next

Today, most of Fedorov’s team remains inside the ministry continuing to implement the reforms they have launched, now under the new Minister of Defense, General Yevhenii Khmara. The combination of Khmara with the new Commander of the Armed Forces Mykhailo Drapatyi is marked by higher level of mutual trust, enabling greater corps autonomy and more honest reporting. Both former Head of the Ground Forces Mykhailo Drapatyi and former head of the SBU’s Alpha unit Yevheyi Khmara represent a generation forged by the 2014 war. In his official communication about his vision, Drapatyi emphasized soldiers as the army’s core asset and faster frontline innovation.

RUSSIA: Are Ukraine’s deep strikes making a difference? 

Ukraine’s deep strike campaign against Russian energy infrastructure directly challenges Moscow’s ability to wage a prolonged war of attrition. As the attacks hit refineries in Moscow and across the country, Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of opening a “Pandora’s box”.  

Graph 1. Source: Novaya-Europe, Interactive Map of Military Incidents in Russia, data as of 15 September 2026.

Note: Figures represent reported military incidents, not the number of UAVs, missiles, or artillery rounds involved. The dataset is automatically compiled from 700+ Telegram channels and classified using AI, and incidents are not manually verified. It may contain duplicate reports, classification or location errors, and unreported incidents are not captured. The source estimates that approximately 10% of incidents contain duplicates or inaccuracies. September data cover 1–15 September only and are not directly comparable with full-month figures.

By extending operational reach up to 2,500 kilometers, maintaining hundreds of monthly drone incursions and using thousands of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), Ukrainian forces have placed more than half of Russia’s operational refining capacity under active fire. Rather than dispersing strikes randomly, the campaign escalated to systematically target critical infrastructure (Graph 2) across facilities representing 184 million tons per year (Mt/yr), or 55% of national refining capacity in July 2026 and 170 Mt/yr (over half) in August this year, against a total operating capacity of 338 Mt/yr (Graph 3). The graph shows a downward trend in Ukraine’s bombing of Russian energy infrastructure, yet the correct reading is that the campaign did not lose momentum; rather, September represents only a two-week reporting window, while August shifted from opening new fronts to repeatedly striking the same major hubs to sabotage their repairs.

Graph 2. Source: strike reports by the Ukrainian General Staff (AFU), cross-referenced where possible with independent reporting (Reuters, Interfax, Moscow Times, DW, Meduza) and OSINT trackers.

 

Graph 3. Source: strike reports by the Ukrainian General Staff (AFU), cross-referenced where possible with independent reporting (Reuters, Interfax, Moscow Times, DW, Meduza) and OSINT trackers, total capacity per npz-tactical-map.vercel.app, accessed in August 2026. 

The operational effect is structural because these incursions disable crude distillation columns and cracking units rather than easily replaced storage tanks. Western equipment sanctions prevent rapid component replacement, turning temporary outages into prolonged plant halts. This continuous pressure forces Russian air defense to choose between shielding front-line military formations and protecting dispersed industrial assets in the deep rear.

Since June 2026, a severe fuel crisis has spread across 88 out of 89 Russian regions. Domestic refining shrank by a quarter in the summer, driving retail gasoline prices to historic highs and creating widespread shortages. Although the armed forces consume only a modest fraction of national diesel and jet fuel, the war depends on civilian supply chains. Administrative fuel rationing at service stations has limited the use of municipal fleets, disrupted commercial freight trucking, and forced forestry and agricultural machinery to halt operations. Emergency interventions, including purchase caps, lowering fuel standards to Euro-3, and sweeping export bans, have failed to rebalance the domestic market.

Russia has tried to compensate for the losses in petroleum products export gap with higher crude oil exports. But Ukraine put pressure on sea routes with drone campaigns like  “MoLoCHKa” led by Unmanned Systems Forces. Having damaged upward of three hundreds of shadow-fleet tankers and transport vessels since the July offensive, the campaign is a tactical success, as it crippled traffic and froze Russian maritime movement across the Azov-Black Sea basin, drastically reducing the pool of remaining targets. 

 

Graph 4. Source: Official Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces data.
Note: Operation MoLoChKa was officially launched on 6 July 2026; June figures therefore precede the operation’s formal designation. Figures represent reported vessels, not individual strikes or weapons. September figures cover a partial month and are therefore not directly comparable with full-month figures. Reported damage has not necessarily been independently verified.

 

Ukraine’s deep strike and shadow fleet strike campaigns have been detrimental to the Russian budget. First, because domestic rail networks, pipeline terminals, and western seaports operate at capacity limits, oil companies cannot redirect halted crude runs into overseas markets. As a result, oil producers are limiting extraction, cutting mineral extraction tax payments to the federal budget. This fiscal squeeze hits the Kremlin from both sides: direct export earnings drop, while the finance ministry must pay dampener subsidies to domestic refiners and fund fuel imports from Belarus and Asian suppliers.

These compounding shocks undermine the central premise of Russia’s attrition strategy, which relies on shielding the home front from the material costs of war. With the liquid reserves of the National Wealth Fund declining, Moscow has increased non-oil corporate taxes and domestic sales taxes to sustain defense expenditures. The Russian civilian economy is forced to absorb heavier taxes, increased freight expenses, and accelerating general inflation. Instead of a stable rear sustaining an offensive posture, Russia faces an overextended industrial base, disrupted domestic logistics, and a compressing revenue stream that steadily raises the political and financial cost of continuing the invasion. The logical next step? Mobilisation.

DEFTECH: Small radars 

From July to September 2026, Europe has seen escalating drone incidents. In Germany, the government attributed to Russia a drone attack at the Leipzig/Halle Airport, where an explosive-laden drone was found near a runway in August. In Romania, suspected Russian drones were detected near Romania’s Black Sea gas platform, leading to military interceptions. In Lithuania, NATO forces confronted a UAV entering the country’s airspace, while repeated drone alerts were disrupting airports and critical infrastructure across the region. Among the drones causing the disruptions there are attack drones containing explosives, reconnaissance drones, and smaller drones, including FPVs. 

These incidents point to the cost vulnerability of Europe’s air defense system. So far, the cost-benefit analysis of counter-drone systems  has focused on the cost gap between $70 000 Shahed vs. $1-3 million intercepting missile. But drone detection also faces a problem: small drones avoid detection with large (and expensive) radars. Medium- and long-range radars used in European air-defense systems have been conceived for a different type of threat: they can mistake birds for small drones (and vice versa) and cannot distinguish between types of drones to prepare an adequate response. To respond to the demands of modern warfare, passive drone detectors and smaller radars are gaining friction, with Ukrainian, EU, US and Chinese producers competing for this market. 

The difference between passive drones detectors and small radars 

Passive drone detectors such as “Chuyka” can intercept video signals, but they cannot detect autonomous GPS-guided drones or fiber-optic models with no radio emissions. The other challenge with passive drone detectors is a need to constantly adapt the detector frequency: “The biggest recurring challenge is frequency drift,” as new drone types vary frequency bands from “1 to 6 GHz a year ago to well beyond 6 GHz today”, explains Andrew Poberezniuk from Kara Dag Technologies. Passive drones detectors are usually used on the frontline, when radars are more often positioned in the rear. As Pavlo Horyachev, a drone trainer from Ukrainian NGO Dignitas comments: “Radars can find these “silent” threats, but because  wave emissions may reveal their position, they are usually deployed behind the front line to protect logistics, convoys, and infrastructure.”

The market of small radars in defense is nascent, as the demand grew in the past five years with the spread of FPV drones and the expanding frontline kill zone. Without production scaling their cost can reach hundreds of thousands of dollars. To understand the difference between available solutions and prices, it is important to distinguish between cheap attritable components, deployable tactical radars, and high-reliability, networked defence-grade systems. A component, such as miniature active radar seeker head for interceptor drones (~80 mm, such as produced by US company Vernius), which locks on Shahed‑class drones >1 km for autonomous/assisted terminal guidance, costs $4,000 per unit. A full operational capability, such as IRIS C-UAS Radar by the Dutch Robin Radar Systems,  (360° azimuth, 60° elevation, and a 5 km (3.1 mi) instrumented range, which gives 78 km2 (30.1 mi2) coverage) cost just about $1,000.000. 

Picture: Examples of product range falling under the “small radars” category by type, price, country and company 

 

An urgent and growing demand for radar components and systems targeting drove the  institutional support through NATO’s Counter-Small UAS procurement framework, the European Defence Agency, and multi-billion-dollar national programs (Greece, Denmark). However, Ukrainian producers can develop solutions faster and test them under combat conditions against a technologically advanced enemy. A combination of Ukrainian experience and access to the most demanding tests with Western funding can result in solutions both sides are seeking. 



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