Speaker: Rodolphe Oberle, Secretary General of the Eastern Circles

Moderator: Anastasiya Shapochkina

Since 2022, Russia has significantly expanded its armed forces through mobilization, volunteers, and the militarization of society, allowing it to multiply its categories of combatants. In contrast, most Western European armies, having long abandoned conscription and reduced their reserves, can only field around seven to eight brigades each, leaving them with little short-term flexibility. Notable exceptions are Poland and Finland, which, inspired by the Baltic states, have invested heavily in reserve forces. Poland alone can field 25 brigades—three times more than other major European powers. Ukraine, meanwhile, has developed into the most powerful land army in Europe, combining professional troops with partial mobilization, territorial defense forces, and an expanded National Guard. Its war-driven reorganization has placed it far ahead of most European countries in terms of both force size and combat readiness.

A defining feature of the current battlefield is drone warfare, responsible for roughly 70 percent of casualties. Ukraine initially led the way, using Turkish Bayraktars and later developing its own UAVs, while driving innovation in small drones since 2014. This gave it a doctrinal breakthrough with significant strategic consequences. Russia, though initially dismissive, caught up with Iranian support and mass-produced large UAVs by 2025, while also scaling up small drone use. Despite early disadvantages in electronic warfare, Ukraine has closed the gap and now brings valuable expertise in EW to Europe. Together, Ukraine and Europe can achieve military parity with Russia, a goal unattainable for Europe alone. Ukraine’s three main contributions to European strategic autonomy are the size and combat experience of its army, its drone innovation, and its EW know-how. A concrete step forward would be establishing a joint European–Ukrainian doctrine center on drone and counter-drone warfare, standardizing equipment and conducting joint training.