One year after the start of the Russian large-scale military invasion of Ukraine, there is a growing consensus in the West that the war in Ukraine is a disaster for Russia – militarily, economically and geopolitically. This is believed to increasingly challenge Moscow’s dominance in its traditional sphere of influence, with Russia now facing a substantial loss of influence over the five former Soviet Central Asian states while competing regional powers such as China and Turkey are standing ready to fill in the emerging geopolitical vacuum. Understanding how the war has impacted Russia’s influence in Central Asia and what is the current state of play is particularly important for policy makers seeking to increase their involvement in the region. This paper seeks to challenge the idea that Russia is losing substantial ground in Central Asia and that the region is undergoing a radical strategic realignment. While Central Asian states’ clearer will to distance themselves from Russia as a result of the war in Ukraine should be acknowledged, Russia is still a key political, economic and security actor in the region with powerful tools at its disposal which are likely to continue shaping the region’s policy choices on the short and medium-term. After reviewing the recent developments believed to signal Russia’s declining clout, I will explain why Central Asia’s neutrality over the war in Ukraine is in fact the result of a pragmatic foreign policy rather than a political realignment, before showing how structural economic dependencies towards Russia remain a vector of lasting Russian influence and finally analyzing how regional competitors have been unable or unwilling to replace Russia as a regional hegemon at this stage.